Poll: Bachmann breaks through, Huntsman hurting, Romney rolling

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney enjoys a comfortable lead in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation race for the Republican presidential nomination while Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann shows signs of breaking through after a universally lauded debate performance on Monday night, according to a new survey by Magellan Strategies for NH Journal, the first New Hampshire survey taken since the debate.

In addition, former Utah Governor and Obama’s past Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman enters the presidential campaign with more Republicans viewing him unfavorably than favorably.

Romney leads all contenders with 42% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and Bachmann are tied with 10% each. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin earns 7% while former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani earns 6% followed by former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty who gets 5%. Four percent say they would vote for Newt Gingrich while Herm Cain and former Obama official Jon Huntsman both earn 3%. Rick Santorum gets 2%.

But the most surprising numbers emerged when we asked which candidates had the strongest debate performance. We asked this question of the 54% of respondents who said they watched the televised debate either on WMUR or CNN.

Thirty-nine percent said Romney gave the strongest performance. But an impressive 28% said Bachmann did. No other candidate finished in double-digits. Among self-identified conservatives who watched the debate, Bachmann performed even better. Among this group, 37% said Romney had the strongest performance, while 33% said Bachmann.

Romney remains very popular with Granite State Republicans. Sixty-nine percent say they have a favorable opinion of him, while only 21% say they view him unfavorably. Bachman is viewed favorably by 55% of respondents, while 28% have an unfavorable view of her. Giuliani is viewed favorably by 53% while 35% view him unfavorably. Forty-two percent view Pawlenty favorably versus 29% who view him unfavorably. Herm Cain is viewed favorably by 39% and 30% view him unfavorably.

Paul and Santorum are all viewed slightly more unfavorably than favorably.

Gingrich faces long odds barring a major turnaround. Sixty-two percent view the former Speaker of the U.S. House unfavorably versus 29% who view him favorably.

However, the favorability numbers for the little-known Huntsman are particularly alarming. Only 14% of Republicans view him favorably. More than twice that number – 36% – have an unfavorable view. Among self-identified conservatives Huntsman is in even worse shape. Only 11% of them have a favorable view of Huntsman versus 41% who have an unfavorable view. The numbers are potentially problematic for Huntsman because he has announced he will not compete in the Iowa caucuses and will instead make his stand in the Granite State. Huntsman’s chief strategist John Weaver is steeped in New Hampshire’s political scene, having served as a chief strategist for Democratic U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen.

This survey was conducted among 727 likely 2012 New Hampshire Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The interviews were conducted June 14th – 15th, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.63% at the 95 percent confidence interval.

New Hampshire GOP Primary 6-16-11

Author: Shawn Millerick

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  • Anonymous

    Bachmann is the brain trust of the GOP!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_2YXE3IUU4CRBKTH22CTA3EZSHU John dddd

    I don’t see how Romney can explain his support of the phoney global wartming scam being perpetrated  on America. Therefore, he will not get my vote.

    • Allenridge

      You don’t see ?  Well see the EXACT position of Romney posted above…………

      As a Reagan Conervative and Evangelical…………I’m 110% behind Romney….

      • Anonymous

        His support is based on lies. Romney is a puppet of the NWO. Ron Paul in 2012

  • lovefreedom

    Romney is a RINO with obama-like leanings!  He is just a “younger” McCain!

    I WOULD VOTE BACHMANN before voting for ANY RINO!!

    • Allenridge

      Reagan was a RINO…………..Romney ………Reagan………..two boys born and raised in America’s Upper Mid West…….

      Prepare for ” Morning In America II “

    • Publius

      Hello:  Publius here.  How are you?  I just checked out Romney’s “Bumps in the Road” video.  Other than the fact that there were no brothers or sisters (black/African-Americans) in the video, I thought it was pretty good.  Somebody needs to go directly at Obama.  Don’t be scared.  Good job!  PS: I don’t mind the dis, Mitt.  My only ex-wife and only son are both Mormon.  I understand but don’t forget the brothers and sisters.  If my girl Sarah chooses not to run, you could pick up some black votes.  Yes you can.  Good luck.  Good video.  Good website.  Take care.

    • Publius

      Hello:  Publius here.  How are you?  I just checked out Romney’s “Bumps in the Road” video.  Other than the fact that there were no brothers or sisters (black/African-Americans) in the video, I thought it was pretty good.  Somebody needs to go directly at Obama.  Don’t be scared.  Good job!  PS: I don’t mind the dis, Mitt.  My only ex-wife and only son are both Mormon.  I understand but don’t forget the brothers and sisters.  If my girl Sarah chooses not to run, you could pick up some black votes.  Yes you can.  Good luck.  Good video.  Good website.  Take care.

    • Publius

      Hello:  Publius here.  How are you?  I just checked out Romney’s “Bumps in the Road” video.  Other than the fact that there were no brothers or sisters (black/African-Americans) in the video, I thought it was pretty good.  Somebody needs to go directly at Obama.  Don’t be scared.  Good job!  PS: I don’t mind the dis, Mitt.  My only ex-wife and only son are both Mormon.  I understand but don’t forget the brothers and sisters.  If my girl Sarah chooses not to run, you could pick up some black votes.  Yes you can.  Good luck.  Good video.  Good website.  Take care.

  • Curious Cat

    What happened to your story about a shake-up at the State GOP?

  • Eli

    Bachman’s vote to extend the Patriot Act is a deal breaker. Ron Paul has my enthusiastic support. 

    • Anonymous

      LOL..ya we don’t want to listen into foreign phone calls from suspected terrorists who want to kill us but its OK to legalize heroin, stop supporting out allies, let terrorists overrun the world and believe that the US government blew up the Twin Towers..you Ron Paul supporters are some real trick ponies..

      • TheConstitution

        If you don’t want to have any liberties and freedoms then why don’t you move to China? Seems like you don’t agree with what this country was founded on. To me that means you shouldn’t be here.

      • Happydog2

        If the NWO wins and freedom is totally gone, you, Dirt will fit right in. Maybe you can get a job as an internment officer at one of the camps. Then you can be a bully to good people who love true freedom and who understand that the “terrorists” are our own government. Idiot.

  • poker kid

    Yeah, why did Bachman vote for the reauthorization of the “Patriot Act?” She is suppose to be a tea-party candidate. Ron Paul is my guy, I hope people stop to give him a chance.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KPKFYC5CCVUCNGVK4A4OSAT3ZM Amen Baby

      The Patriot Act was changed to be constitutional YEARS ago. 

      Try to keep updated on the facts.

      • Anonymous

        No it wasn’t. You need to read it again. It is fact that it tramples the 4th amendment, among others.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mitchell-Ryan-Kramb/23206722 Mitchell Ryan Kramb

        what a moron, lmfao.

  • Allenridge

    “I am uncertain how much of the warming, however, is attributable to man and how much is attributable to factors out of our control. I do not support radical feel-good policies like a unilateral U.S. cap-and-trade mandate. Such policies would have little effect on climate but could cripple economic growth with devastating results for people across the planet.” — Mitt Romney No Apology, p. 227

  • Anonymous

    Romney/Obamacare, yet another violation of our rights. Add it to the list of gov’t violations of our rights:They violate the 1st Amendment by placing protesters in cages, banning books like “America Deceived II” and censoring the internet.
    They violate the 2nd Amendment by confiscating guns.
    They violate the 4th and 5th Amendment by molesting airline passengers.
    They violate the entire Constitution by starting undeclared wars for foreign countries.
    Impeach Obama, vote for Ron Paul.
    (Last link of Banned Book):
    http://www.iuniverse.com/Bookstore/BookDetail.aspx?BookId=SKU-000190526

  • Brian

    Ron Paul 2012…Check his long voting record it speaks for itself. May be the only politician not owned by lobbyist.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KPKFYC5CCVUCNGVK4A4OSAT3ZM Amen Baby

      Ron Paul , a libertarian-which is a good thing, is unelectable

      He take libertarianism to some degree it does not exist…..into crazy land.

      He perverts libertarianism to irrational ends. That is not libertarianism

      • http://twitter.com/Canada4RonPaul True Patriot

        Ya lets just vote for someone besides Paul and keep getting into unjust illegal wars, run our deficit up to 20 trillion, why not?
        You say crazy land but give no facts to back it up.  All of these candidates talk the talk, but only Pauls voting record matches up to what he says.

    • Anonymous

      Ya ?…and pro legalizing heroin, pro allowing the super mosque to be built on Ground Zero, pro-stopping all financial support to Israel, didn’t think we should have went in and killed Bin Laden, thinks the US brought on 911 upon itself…thank God this kook is 76 so THIS will be the last time he will be able to run for President and we won’t have to listen to you -his Jonestown like followers worshipping him all over the internet and showing up at rallies and such wetting all over yourselves yelling his name…

      • TheConstitution

        So you support wasting billions of dollars on the war on drugs that is doing so well at stopping people from obtaining, using, and abusing drugs? Whether you’re trying to protect yourself from the urge to do heroine or prevent your children from being exposed to it, it’ll happen whether a law or team of people are there trying to stop it. Sure, lets just keep wasting that money and the money we’re blowing over seas. Lets keep printing money to pay our debts. Then when the rest of the world rejects the dollar because it’s completely worthless, our economy can finally fully collapse. Let’s continue to throw The Constitution out the window so we can finally become the submissive slaves our totalitarian dictatorship of a government wants us to be. Great plan. I can’t wait to live your world.

        If you honestly think everything our government is doing right now is in your best interest or is protecting you, I feel very sorry for you. Ignorance is only bliss while you’re not paying it’s price. I hope you enjoy every day you live right now because if things go your way, your quality of life is about to take a serious down turn.

      • Nichols

        You are the crazy one. You’ve fallen for the governments terrorism hysteria and fear mongering. Read some history books. Every time a nations people has been brought to it’s knees by it’s leaders it has been so under the guise of protecting them from a threat that didn’t exist.

        “Whenever government says ‘to keep you safe’ – get ready, because you are going to lose your freedoms.” – Ventura

  • Anonymous

    Romney sucks. Socialized medicine. For abortion/against abortion/talk to me next week. You NH voters are out of your minds.

  • Jeff

    Mr. Millerick can you explain how Michele’s 10% indicates her “breakthrough” but Ron Paul’s 10% makes no such indication?  Your article (because of your choice of headline) has been linked at politico.com with a headline “Michele Bachman places”.  I *do* appreciate the source data embedding so that those who want to can find out the real results.   However, those that only read a headline will answer their next Magellan survey knowing that you’ve decided Bachmann is the *real* Romney competition.  The tail so blatantly wags the dog.

    • Anonymous

      It is because the powers that be are afraid of Ron Paul. They try to make him as insignifiant ass possible so people won’t vote for him. All these candidates, other than Ron Paul, are bought and paod for by the NWO. They are all puppets and Ron Paul is the only one who will stand up to them for and We The People. They are a fraid, they are very afraid and based on the comments here Ron Paul seems to be the favorite. Not Romney or Bachman. Don’t even get me started on Cain who was chairman of the Phily Fed. Anyone associated with that criminal organization is a NWO puppet.

  • Eric

    Mitt is for cap & trade carbon taxation by a global authority, he’s for mandatory socialized medicine, he’s for the bill of rights destroying Patriot Act… Let’s just stop there.  He is NOT a conservative!  I’m embarrassed to be from NH that so many think this pandering RINO is fit for presidency.

  • Anonymous

    Romney is one of them An elitist. Ron Paul is the only one who will give us something other than the status quo. Brian is right. Look at Ron Paul’s voting record. How could any of you vote for Romney since he also initiated in MA Romney care which Obama care is modeled after. Anyone who tells you that you have to buy something is crooked. Romney is also bought and paid for by the big banks. He will continue to approve the unconstitutional Patriot Act. Paul apposes this and the Fed who are also ruining this country. Ron Paul in 2012 or live to regret your decision as our once great country is finished off for good.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KPKFYC5CCVUCNGVK4A4OSAT3ZM Amen Baby

    Total non-sense, Yeah another propaganda poll.

    I have yet to meet a single Republican that views Romney favorably.

    Not ONE.
    To suggest  that most Republicans are against Obamacare and Romneycare but still favor Romney over others is a clear deception

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KPKFYC5CCVUCNGVK4A4OSAT3ZM Amen Baby

    Romney and Ron Paul both suck., along wiht Huntsman.
    Romney ad Hunstman both come off as incrediably fake and untrustworthy. Ron Paul , as on most things , comes across insane. …almost as bad as liberals do.

    • Eric

      “Ron Paul , as on most things , comes across insane”

      Please explain precisely what you mean.

  • Anonymous

    Romney is for corn ethanol.
    He left MA falling apart with big debts. 
    Mitt has stood on each side of the cap-and-trade issue.
    He is not against the tax subsidies to the five most profitable oil companies.
    MA had the puniest rates of employment growth among the 50 U.S. states, at a time the nation’s economy was booming.
    5 off his companies went bankrupt.
    He is an idiot that panders to lobbyists.
    Romneycare is a failure. They call him MittFlops.
    I am a republican and will not vote for that dope.
    I wish Ron Paul had a chance.

  • http://www.facebook.com/frank.keen Frank Keen

    I hate to do this, but none of them will beat Obama, Obama has all the dirty tricks he needs to beat them all, And I for one can’t stand Obama and his crud,….but I feel that their is just not enough Momentum on the republican side to beat Obama,    It is these young voters 18 to 35 that will get Obama elected again in November 2012. It will trurly be a sad day for America when Obama gets elected a second term

  • Loring50

    Bachmann for President. 

    A scary concept to even be discussing. take that from a resident of the MN 6th!

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Charles-Lupton/100000110905205 Charles Lupton

    I see Johnson excluded again…